Abandoning Evidence-Based Policy Decisions, Trump Makes a Bad Deal for America

By Natascha Smith, Energy Fellow

Flooding from Hurricane Harvey outside Beaumont,
Texas. Credit: Dominick Del Vecchio, FEMA

When most of us are faced with a major decision we like to consider our options. Whether you hit the net for online reviews or turn to the trusty pro-con list, we all want to feel like we made the best decision possible given the information before us. Shouldn’t we expect our government to do the same? When we elect officials to represent us in Washington D.C., we hope that they will put themselves in our shoes, weighing all the pros and cons, and making the best decision they can with the information they have. Nevertheless, President Trump has done the exact opposite. On August 15^th, Trump issued a new executive order rolling back the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard and abandoning evidence-based policy decision-making.

The Federal Flood Risk Management Standard, updated by President Obama by executive order in 2015, required the federal government to account for sea level rise and increased flood risk caused by climate change before constructing new infrastructure. The Obama Order, which only regulated federal projects, gave agencies three options when siting projects. Agencies could  consider the best available climate change science in their siting decision; build infrastructure two feet above the 100-year flood elevation standard, with critical infrastructure, like hospitals, five feet above the 100-year flood elevation standard; or build infrastructure at the 500-year flood plain level.

Trump’s new plan for streamlining the federal permitting process includes returning the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard to the standards set in 1977. These standards require agencies to consider only the outdated 100-year and 500-year flood elevation standards when siting new projects. Rolling back a common-sense protection like this serves as yet another example of President Trump eliminating his predecessor’s climate change policy on every level imaginable.

Despite the shortsightedness of rolling back infrastructure protections when extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common, Trump continues to find support for his increasingly outrageous actions (rollback). Representative Ralph Abraham (R-Louisiana) supports Trump’s rollback of the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard even though Louisiana experienced severe flooding in 2016, which caused over $10 billion in damage. While Rep. Abraham calls this catastrophic flooding an “isolated event,” severe weather events are becoming the new normal. Shortly after Rep. Abraham issued his statements, Hurricane Harvey dumped almost 10 inches of rain in Louisiana and nearly 50 inches of rain on Houston. At its peak, Houston’s flooding covered an area as large as New York City and Chicago combined. While Hurricane Harvey is being called a “500-year flood,” in reality this is the third “500-year flood” event that Houston has experienced in the past three years.

How can this be?  Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science at Pennsylvania State University, explains that climate change has intensified severe weather events so much that we need a new set of guideposts. While the chance of severe weather events occurring is calculated based on how frequently such events occurred throughout history, a “500-year flood” refers not to a length of time, but rather to the 1-in-500 chance of such a flood occurring each year. Likewise, a “100-year flood” has a 1-in-100 chance of occurring and a “1,000-year flood” has a 1-in-1,000 chance of occurring in a given year. Professor Mann and other atmospheric scientists agree that these historical projections are no longer accurate because climate change is shifting the baseline. He analogizes the increased frequency of floods and other severe events to playing with loaded dice.

With severe weather events becoming more common, it becomes even more important to construct infrastructure with climate change in mind. It is not only socially irresponsible to ignore climate change; the financial impact is potentially devastating. Experts are estimating it could take nearly $200 billion to repair damage caused by Harvey, and the taxpayers will be picking up a large chunk of that tab. Eliminating requirements for agencies to make evidenced-based policy decisions when constructing infrastructure is irresponsible and may leave taxpayers footing the bill for projects that are vulnerable to severe weather events that are almost certainly going to get worse.  For a man whose presidential platform consisted of touting his business acumen, by encouraging agencies to ignore the best available climate science when making infrastructure siting decisions, Trump made a bad deal for America.