This year, the United States may achieve the most
significant decline in carbon emissions in the nation’s history, according to a
new white paper from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Medium-term Outlook for US Power: 2015 =
Deepest De-Carbonization Ever. BNEF attributes the coming
de-carbonization to three factors: the growth of renewable energy, the
retirement of coal plants, and the replacement of coal with natural gas. This
blog post argues that this year’s anticipated decline in carbon emissions is
really part of a much greater, much more significant trend: The United States
has begun the transition from fossil fuels to renewables.
Coal-To-Gas is Tepid
Progress
BNEF is correct that closing coal plants and replacing them
with natural gas facilities can lower emissions of carbon dioxide at the power
plant level. For this reason, natural gas sometimes receives praise for being a
“bridge fuel”
that can ease a transition toward renewable energy. However, the natural gas
“bridge” lacks a solid foundation for two essential reasons.
First, extracting and refining natural gas leads to “fugitive”
methane emissions before natural gas ever reaches a power plant. Because
methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (25 times
more powerful), these fugitive methane emissions can more than offset any
reduced carbon emissions at the power-plant level. In fact, Robert Howarth, a
scholar at Cornell University, found
that “both shale gas and conventional natural gas have a larger [greenhouse gas
footprint] than do coal or oil, for any possible use of natural gas.” In other
words, despite reduced emissions from power plants themselves, upstream methane
emissions mean that switching from coal to gas may not be a net climate benefit
at all.
Second, any commitments we make to natural gas now are
likely to lock us into an unsustainable pattern of greenhouse gas emissions for
decades. The U.S. Department of Energy projects
that natural gas-fired power plants are likely to have a 30-year useful life.
When approving new gas plants, state regulators generally commit to allowing a
utility to recover the total construction cost, plus profit, over the plant’s
useful life. In effect, approval of new natural gas plants can guarantee that
we continue to emit harmful greenhouse gases for decades to come.
But Renewables are a
Hot Market
Renewable energy offers a better solution, and recent trends
provide reasons for hope. 2014 witnessed the
most effective investments in renewable energy around the world. BNEF
expects a record level of 18.5
GW of renewable energy development in the United States in 2015. A new
study from the Rocky Mountain Institute, The Economics of Load Defection, foresees a sea change in how
Americans generate electricity: “Over time, as retail electricity prices from
the grid increase and solar and battery costs decrease, customers logically
reduce their grid purchases until the grid takes a backup-only role.”
Distributed solar power and energy storage will likely become the primary
source of electricity for most American consumers, meaning that investments in
large, long-lived fossil fuel power plants will likely prove unnecessary and
short-sighted.
According to a new survey from SolarCity, U.S. Homeowners on Clean Energy: A National
Survey, Americans overwhelmingly support the transition away from
fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. A resounding 87% majority agreed that renewable energy is important to America’s energy future, and 50%
ranked solar power as the most important new energy source. When asked about
federal tax credits for wind and solar energy, a whopping 74% backed
continuation of these policies. Moreover, while renewable energy is often cast
as a Democratic favorite, a Yale
survey of Republican voters demonstrates that the support for a transition
to renewable energy crosses party lines. 77% of surveyed Republicans believe
that the United States should use more renewable energy, and 64% believe that
the United States should take action to reduce fossil fuel use.
Continued Policy
Progress is Necessary
In the United States, energy choices are policy choices. The
United States has never had a free market for electricity; government
regulators have always made the decisions that determine how we generate
energy. The policy choices we make today will determine how clean our energy
sources are tomorrow. Some policies are clearly helping. The federal Investment
Tax Credit and Production Tax Credit for renewable energy have driven
investment in solar and wind energy—although uncertainty about renewing those
credits has also driven a boom-and-bust investment pattern. Congress should
extend those tax credits to provide a solid foundation for continued market
growth. Republicans in Congress especially should listen to their
constituents—Yale’s survey of Republican voters found that a majority felt that
elected officials neither listen to nor care about their constituents’ opinions on
energy issues. At the state level, renewable portfolio standards have very
successfully driven renewable energy development at low cost. States should
continue to expand these successful policies. And at the local level, cities
can help too. Georgetown, Texas recently aimed to become 100%
powered by renewable energy (as did Vancouver,
BC). At the local, state, and federal level, policymakers are making
progress. If we continue to make policy progress, this year’s decline in carbon
emissions will be just the beginning of a trend toward a truly clean energy
grid.
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