A new report released by Environment Oregon’s Research and
Policy Center calls for the U.S. to obtain 30% of our electricity from wind
power by 2030. The report, titled More Wind, Less Warming: How American Wind
Energy’s Rapid Growth Can Help Solve Global Warming, highlights wind
power’s potential to reduce U.S. carbon emissions and help mitigate global
climate change. According to Environment Oregon’s report, wind energy prevented
132 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere in 2013.
If we succeed in procuring 30% of our electricity from wind power, Americans
could prevent 705 million tons of CO2 emissions per year by 2025 and
968 million tons per year by 2030. These reductions are equivalent to
eliminating emissions from 254 coal-fired power plants in 2030, which
represents a 40% reduction in power-sector emissions below 2005 levels.
Wind power has experienced tremendous growth over the past
decade, and currently provides 4% of electricity in the United States. While
we’ve made impressive progress in recent years, the deployment potential for
new wind resources is incredible. Environment Oregon’s report emphasizes that
it is both economically and technologically feasible to obtain 30% of our
electricity from wind power by 2030. From an economic standpoint, wind power is
currently cost competitive with natural gas-fired power in many parts of the
country. As wind development has increased, costs have decreased—the levelized
cost of new wind facilities decreased by 58% over the past five years. Wind
power is also immune from potential price increases associated with fuel price
volatility or emissions regulation, so wind power should become increasingly
cost competitive over time.
From a technical standpoint, the grid can support
substantially more wind power than we currently transmit. Rapid wind energy
deployment in parts of the country has shown that the grid is capable of integrating
large quantities of wind power, and Iowa and South Dakota currently obtain more
than 25% of their electricity from wind. According to NREL, there
currently are no technical barriers to integrating 35% wind and solar power
onto the grid. In a separate
report, NREL determined that if we improve the performance, capacity, and
flexibility of our existing electrical grid, we could obtain 80% of our
electricity from renewable resources by 2050.
So what do we need to do to make the 30% wind power by 2030
goal a reality? Environment Oregon recommends that 1) EPA should strengthen and
finalize its Clean Power Plan, and state implementation plans should maximize
the use of renewable energy resources, such as wind power, to comply with their
emission goals; 2) states should adopt ambitious renewable electricity
standards mandating increased procurement of wind power; 3) state and federal
agencies should work together to facilitate offshore wind power development;
and 4) the federal government should renew and extend the Production Tax Credit
(PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) to incentivize wind power development.
These policies would have a dramatic impact on wind power
development in the United States. EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan would
encourage states to retire aging, inefficient coal plants, and replace these
facilities with clean energy resources. State renewable electricity standards
or renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) have already had a massive impact on
wind development in a number of states, and a number of utilities cite their
state RPS obligations as the primary driver of their planned wind capacity
additions (see, for example, PacifiCorp’s
2013 IRP). Twenty-nine
states currently have RPSs, but only California, Colorado, and Hawaii have
set mandates of 30% or more. Many RPS requirements have already been met, and NREL doesn’t expect
these standards to support more than one to three gigawatts (GW) of new wind
development per year through 2020. Considering that nine states only have
renewable energy goals and twelve states have neither renewable energy
standards nor goals, there is room for significant policy advancement in this
area. California, for example, already has one of the most ambitious RPSs in
the nation, mandating that 33% of the state’s electricity come from renewable
sources by 2020. Yet the California
PUC will consider increasing this percentage through a rulemaking early next
year.
Finally, the federal PTC has provided a critical incentive
for wind energy development and deployment in the U.S., and the tax credit’s
2013 expiration may prove devastating for the American wind energy industry
(the House
of Representatives is currently considering extending the PTC, but only for
the remaining few weeks of 2014). NREL recently evaluated
scenarios in which the PTC was either extended or allowed to expire, and
found that if the PTC is not renewed, wind deployment will average between
three and five GW per year through 2020, but if the tax credits are renewed,
deployment will average between five and fifteen GW per year through 2020.
Adopting and implementing these policy recommendations will
put us on track to meet Environment Oregon’s goal of obtaining 30% of our
electricity from wind power by 2030. This goal is realistic and achievable, and
will help set us on a course towards a clean, sustainable energy future.
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